● Trend: Below long-term trend
Price sits below its 200-day average, but the shorter-term averages are not cleanly aligned above/below it.
| Horizon | Bear case (−1σ) | Base case | Bull case (+1σ) |
|---|
| 1 Month | $4.36 (-16.9%) | $5.25 | $6.31 (+20.4%) |
| 3 Months | $3.81 (-27.5%) | $5.25 | $7.23 (+37.8%) |
| 6 Months | $3.33 (-36.5%) | $5.25 | $8.26 (+57.4%) |
| 12 Months | $2.76 (-47.4%) | $5.25 | $9.96 (+90.0%) |
Statistical, not machine-learning: a random-walk (no assumed drift) volatility model built from this ticker's own realized price history, plus a purely descriptive moving-average trend read. Illustrative only — not a price target and not financial advice. The bear and bull cases sit one standard deviation (1σ) below and above today's price, a range that covers about 68% of the outcomes the model treats as plausible, not a 68% chance of either case. Annualized volatility used: 64.2%, blended from this ticker's own 3-month and 1-year realized price history. Base case is deliberately flat — this quantifies a possible range, not a directional prediction.
See the full model, including wider (≈95%) bands →