● Trend: Above long-term trend
Price sits above its 200-day average, but the shorter-term averages are not cleanly aligned above/below it.
| Horizon | Bear case (−1σ) | Base case | Bull case (+1σ) |
|---|
| 1 Month | $14.82 (-5.9%) | $15.75 | $16.74 (+6.3%) |
| 3 Months | $14.17 (-10.0%) | $15.75 | $17.50 (+11.1%) |
| 6 Months | $13.56 (-13.9%) | $15.75 | $18.29 (+16.1%) |
| 12 Months | $12.75 (-19.0%) | $15.75 | $19.45 (+23.5%) |
Statistical, not machine-learning: a random-walk (no assumed drift) volatility model built from this ticker's own realized price history, plus a purely descriptive moving-average trend read. Illustrative only — not a price target and not financial advice. The bear and bull cases sit one standard deviation (1σ) below and above today's price, a range that covers about 68% of the outcomes the model treats as plausible, not a 68% chance of either case. Annualized volatility used: 21.1%, blended from this ticker's own 3-month and 1-year realized price history. Base case is deliberately flat — this quantifies a possible range, not a directional prediction.
See the full model, including wider (≈95%) bands →