● Trend: Below long-term trend
Price sits below its 200-day average, but the shorter-term averages are not cleanly aligned above/below it.
| Horizon | Bear case (−1σ) | Base case | Bull case (+1σ) |
|---|
| 1 Month | $42.08 (-16.6%) | $50.47 | $60.53 (+19.9%) |
| 3 Months | $36.84 (-27.0%) | $50.47 | $69.14 (+37.0%) |
| 6 Months | $32.34 (-35.9%) | $50.47 | $78.77 (+56.1%) |
| 12 Months | $26.89 (-46.7%) | $50.47 | $94.72 (+87.7%) |
Statistical, not machine-learning: a random-walk (no assumed drift) volatility model built from this ticker's own realized price history, plus a purely descriptive moving-average trend read. Illustrative only — not a price target and not financial advice. The bear and bull cases sit one standard deviation (1σ) below and above today's price, a range that covers about 68% of the outcomes the model treats as plausible, not a 68% chance of either case. Annualized volatility used: 63.0%, blended from this ticker's own 3-month and 1-year realized price history. Base case is deliberately flat — this quantifies a possible range, not a directional prediction.
See the full model, including wider (≈95%) bands →