● Trend: Above long-term trend
Price sits above its 200-day average, but the shorter-term averages are not cleanly aligned above/below it.
| Horizon | Bear case (−1σ) | Base case | Bull case (+1σ) |
|---|
| 1 Month | $743.32 (-3.4%) | $769.39 | $796.37 (+3.5%) |
| 3 Months | $724.80 (-5.8%) | $769.39 | $816.72 (+6.2%) |
| 6 Months | $707.09 (-8.1%) | $769.39 | $837.17 (+8.8%) |
| 12 Months | $682.79 (-11.3%) | $769.39 | $866.96 (+12.7%) |
Statistical, not machine-learning: a random-walk (no assumed drift) volatility model built from this ticker's own realized price history, plus a purely descriptive moving-average trend read. Illustrative only — not a price target and not financial advice. The bear and bull cases sit one standard deviation (1σ) below and above today's price, a range that covers about 68% of the outcomes the model treats as plausible, not a 68% chance of either case. Annualized volatility used: 11.9%, blended from this ticker's own 3-month and 1-year realized price history. Base case is deliberately flat — this quantifies a possible range, not a directional prediction.
See the full model, including wider (≈95%) bands →